Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2510 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2510 LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2313 LGA 18:06 → MSP 20:04 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2510 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MSP 07:53	5%	2%	1.1%	94%
DL 2473 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:55	MSP 09:53	8%	3%	1.0%	91%
DL 2409 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:10	MSP 13:10	14%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 2349 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:55	MSP 17:06	17%	7%	0.8%	75%
DL 2313 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:06	MSP 20:04	27%	10%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON