Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2405 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2405 LGA 07:38 → MSY 09:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest WN 1256 LGA 15:56 → MSY 17:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2405 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:38	MSY 09:36	9%	4%	1.3%	68%
AA 1675 American	LGA 14:27	MSY 16:34	23%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 1256 Southwest	LGA 15:56	MSY 17:56	29%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON