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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 7h 00m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 10:13 → MYR 11:23AA 2431 5h 23m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 7h 08m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 50m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 34m 89% 80%
AmericanDetails → LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 17:41 → MYR 18:52AA 1417 6h 42m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 10:01 → CLT 11:54AA 2036 3h 57m Charlotte CLT 15:51 → MYR 17:01AA 2943 7h 00m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 20:03 → MYR 21:13AA 1085 6h 42m 93% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON