Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	58m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	93%	83%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	10h 12m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	10h 31m	99%	79%
American Details →	LGA 13:08 → DFW 15:58AA 1609	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:58 → ONT 19:16AA 3006	9h 08m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON