Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2251 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 2251 LGA 06:00 → ORD 07:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 598 LGA 18:29 → ORD 20:03 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2251 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ORD 07:32	7%	4%	2.5%	93%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	LGA 06:10	ORD 07:49	8%	3%	2.0%	89%
AA 1427 American	LGA 06:01	ORD 07:33	9%	4%	3.0%	no record
AA 392 American Flight history →	LGA 07:23	ORD 09:09	12%	5%	3.1%	87%
AA 1263 American	LGA 07:00	ORD 08:32	12%	5%	3.0%	no record
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	ORD 09:06	14%	6%	2.0%	81%
UA 1008 United	LGA 07:25	ORD 08:55	14%	4%	1.9%	no record
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:45	ORD 10:23	15%	5%	1.8%	80%
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	15%	10%	2.2%	55%
UA 1166 United	LGA 08:21	ORD 09:52	17%	6%	1.7%	no record
AA 2223 American Flight history →	LGA 09:35	ORD 11:13	18%	6%	2.3%	88%
UA 477 United	LGA 09:12	ORD 10:43	19%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 855 American	LGA 10:33	ORD 12:05	20%	8%	2.6%	no record
UA 1310 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	ORD 11:57	20%	6%	1.4%	80%
AA 386 American	LGA 12:26	ORD 14:00	22%	9%	2.6%	no record
DL 2240 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:05	24%	8%	2.0%	74%
UA 2015 United	LGA 11:29	ORD 13:08	24%	8%	1.3%	no record
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	24%	13%	1.6%	59%
AA 1534 American	LGA 14:12	ORD 15:46	26%	12%	2.7%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	LGA 13:28	ORD 15:00	27%	11%	1.4%	74%
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	27%	12%	1.5%	61%
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ORD 22:12	29%	12%	1.3%	47%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ORD 16:30	29%	12%	1.9%	64%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	31%	15%	1.7%	62%
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	31%	14%	2.5%	64%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	32%	15%	1.8%	66%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	33%	16%	1.6%	57%
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:34	ORD 21:08	33%	15%	1.2%	60%
UA 1442 United	LGA 14:29	ORD 16:01	34%	11%	1.4%	no record
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	35%	15%	1.5%	53%
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 17:58	ORD 19:34	40%	19%	2.5%	38%
UA 2336 United	LGA 17:21	ORD 18:54	43%	15%	1.3%	no record
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	ORD 20:03	44%	19%	1.4%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON