Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5786 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 5786 LGA 08:13 → PIT 09:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 4579 LGA 18:19 → PIT 19:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:13	PIT 09:49	9%	3%	1.4%	84%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:16	PIT 09:54	10%	3%	1.4%	83%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:38	PIT 12:16	13%	4%	1.5%	86%
AA 4410 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:03	PIT 11:39	14%	4%	1.7%	69%
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	PIT 14:47	14%	4%	1.2%	87%
YX 4538 Republic	LGA 13:26	PIT 15:03	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	15%	6%	1.5%	72%
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:02	PIT 20:39	20%	7%	1.3%	100%worse than usual
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:19	PIT 19:56	25%	9%	1.2%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON