Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 09:54, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:54	PNS 11:35	8%	3%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → PNS 12:47DL 1640	6h 48m	100%	91%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 11:06 → PNS 13:36UA 2492	8h 26m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 51m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	7h 04m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	7h 13m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:54 → PNS 19:14DL 3021	7h 15m	99%	86%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 10:45 → PNS 11:32AA 2476	6h 32m	99%	85%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → PNS 14:53AA 2328	9h 23m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON