Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5643 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 5643 LGA 08:39 → SDF 11:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5636 LGA 18:20 → SDF 20:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5643 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:39	SDF 11:02	14%	4%	1.6%	87%
DL 5637 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:05	SDF 13:27	16%	5%	1.1%	86%
DL 5636 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:20	SDF 20:59	28%	12%	1.2%	69%
DL 4851 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:35	SDF 17:11	40%	18%	7.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON