tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 2h 48m Houston IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202 11h 12m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 02m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 33m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 10h 58m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 10h 31m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06UA 2617 2h 24m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 10h 20m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 1h 00m Chicago ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179 8h 53m 73% 49%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:11 → SFO 22:14AA 2856 9h 14m 70% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON