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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 54m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 25m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 10h 18m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 1h 30m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 00m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:00 → DEN 12:20UA 716 3h 54m Denver DEN 16:14 → SNA 17:54UA 1497 10h 54m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 01m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:49 → IAH 10:20UA 2371 2h 01m Houston IAH 12:21 → SNA 14:06UA 1533 9h 17m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 13:28 → ORD 15:00UA 1967 58m Chicago ORD 15:58 → SNA 18:09UA 1317 7h 41m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON