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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 10:28, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:28 SRQ 13:33 16% 5% 2.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115 7h 20m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 52m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 17m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452 6h 14m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 02m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033 2h 36m Charlotte CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604 6h 54m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DCA 07:58AA 4487 · flown by Republic 57m Washington DCA 08:55 → SRQ 11:31AA 2584 5h 01m 90% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON