Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2549 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2549 LGA 06:06 → STL 07:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2552 LGA 18:46 → STL 20:21 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2549 Southwest	LGA 06:06	STL 07:41	4%	1%	1.8%	no record
YX 4340 Republic	LGA 07:00	STL 08:48	9%	4%	1.7%	no record
WN 2550 Southwest	LGA 12:06	STL 13:40	16%	4%	1.1%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	LGA 14:26	STL 16:19	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2551 Southwest	LGA 15:01	STL 16:36	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 4728 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	STL 20:55	28%	10%	1.1%	67%
WN 2552 Southwest	LGA 18:46	STL 20:21	34%	12%	0.9%	no record
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:30	STL 08:08	11%	6%	2.9%	89%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:00	STL 11:47	20%	7%	3.2%	80%
DL 4926 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:51	STL 20:46	30%	14%	9.5%	70%
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:59	STL 15:50	35%	15%	7.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON