Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4605 LGA 11:27 → TUL 14:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4341 LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4605 Republic	LGA 11:27	TUL 14:05	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 4341 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	TUL 22:08	24%	11%	1.2%	67%
DL 4630 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:54	TUL 19:27	41%	26%	5.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON