Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4432 at 10:52, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4432 LGA 10:52 → TYS 13:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4432 Republic	LGA 10:52	TYS 13:02	11%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 4983 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:44	TYS 10:58	18%	4%	5.6%	82%
DL 5455 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:20	TYS 16:38	28%	13%	5.3%	72%
DL 5003 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:54	TYS 21:15	33%	20%	5.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON