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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:44 → VPS 11:00DL 2048 6h 00m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 7h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:01 → VPS 18:17DL 2803 7h 18m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 6h 49m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 16:46 → VPS 17:25AA 5201 · flown by PSA 6h 15m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → VPS 15:29AA 2501 9h 59m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 11:08 → DFW 13:47AA 2088 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 8h 30m 97% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON