Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:16, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 1379 Southwest	LGB 08:01	HNL 11:08	24%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 869 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 07:25	HNL 10:29	28%	7%	1.8%	88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LGB 08:16 → OGG 10:52AS 971	3h 08m Kahului	OGG 14:00 → HNL 14:42AS 1135	9h 26m	98%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON