Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 07:25, 38% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 971 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 08:16	OGG 10:52	16%	5%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LGB 07:25 → HNL 10:29AS 869	3h 09m Honolulu	HNL 13:38 → OGG 14:28AS 1126	10h 03m	97%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LGB 07:25 → HNL 10:29AS 869	55m Honolulu	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	7h 42m	64%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON