Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2586 at 06:17, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 2586 LIH 06:17 → HNL 07:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1084 LIH 13:43 → HNL 14:22 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2586 Southwest	LIH 06:17	HNL 07:13	5%	2%	2.1%	no record
AS 1004 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 06:00	HNL 06:36	11%	4%	3.2%	95%
WN 2587 Southwest	LIH 08:22	HNL 09:18	11%	3%	2.7%	no record
AS 1014 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 07:12	HNL 07:48	15%	6%	3.2%	94%
AS 1024 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:22	HNL 08:59	16%	6%	3.2%	87%
WN 2588 Southwest	LIH 11:51	HNL 12:47	23%	5%	2.1%	no record
AS 1034 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:04	HNL 09:42	33%	7%	3.2%	88%worse than usual
AS 1044 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:46	HNL 10:24	40%	8%	3.2%	85%worse than usual
AS 1054 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:14	HNL 11:53	41%	10%	2.7%	84%worse than usual
AS 1064 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:58	HNL 12:37	41%	10%	3.2%	77%worse than usual
AS 1074 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:55	HNL 13:34	46%	10%	2.7%	79%worse than usual
AS 1084 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 13:43	HNL 14:22	48%	11%	2.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON