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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 12% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004 1h 50m Honolulu HNL 08:26 → KOA 09:12AS 1048 3h 12m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014 1h 41m Honolulu HNL 09:29 → KOA 10:27AS 1068 3h 15m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040 2h 44m Kahului OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030 4h 09m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 10:30 → OGG 11:19AS 1150 2h 44m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 4h 09m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024 2h 08m Honolulu HNL 11:07 → KOA 12:05AS 1088 3h 43m 100% 62%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034 1h 52m Honolulu HNL 11:34 → KOA 12:32AS 1098 3h 28m 97% 57%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044 2h 14m Honolulu HNL 12:38 → KOA 13:36AS 1128 3h 50m 97% 53%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054 1h 35m Honolulu HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1138 3h 12m 86% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LIH 11:58 → HNL 12:37AS 1064 51m Honolulu HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1138 2h 28m 12% 6%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON