Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, 62% on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	95%	62%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:46 → HNL 10:24AS 1044	3h 01m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 24m	100%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:58 → HNL 12:37AS 1064	48m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	7h 12m	3%	2%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON