Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1296 at 13:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1296 LIH 13:01 → LAX 21:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 964 LIH 12:34 → LAX 21:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1296 United Flight history →	LIH 13:01	LAX 21:40	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 266 American Flight history →	LIH 13:19	LAX 22:00	20%	5%	0.7%	84%
AS 964 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:34	LAX 21:00	25%	5%	0.9%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034	2h 02m Honolulu	HNL 11:44 → LAX 20:06AS 826	8h 02m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	1h 17m Honolulu	HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32AS 802	7h 18m	82%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON