Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:30, 72% on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2612 Southwest	LIH 12:16	OAK 20:26	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 46m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → OAK 21:00AS 924	8h 33m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 12:15 → OAK 20:25AS 848	9h 03m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON