Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 1040 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day AS 1040 LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 1260 LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1040 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:27	OGG 10:16	19%	3%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
WN 2593 Southwest	LIH 13:31	OGG 14:42	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1150 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:30	OGG 11:19	25%	4%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 1260 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:30	OGG 15:19	32%	5%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON