Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27% (calm day: 17%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:27, 67% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 974 Alaska	LIH 11:24	PDX 19:58	22%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	1h 06m Kahului	OGG 11:22 → PDX 19:32AS 480	7h 05m	87%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	1h 09m Honolulu	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:12AS 839	7h 12m	93%	65%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 28m	100%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON