Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32% (calm day: 19%). Best bet: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:30, 65% on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 239 Alaska	LIH 10:44	SAN 19:23	25%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 43m Kahului	OGG 12:59 → SAN 21:11AS 203	8h 44m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	54m Honolulu	HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:06AS 827	7h 06m	81%	55%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 45m	100%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	46m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	6h 53m	2%	1%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON