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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 234 Alaska Flight history → LIH 12:31 SEA 21:21 25% 7% 0.8% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LIH 10:30 → OGG 11:19AS 1150 3h 15m Kahului OGG 14:34 → SEA 22:50AS 244 9h 20m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040 2h 39m Kahului OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930 8h 58m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024 1h 50m Honolulu HNL 10:49 → SEA 19:20AS 902 7h 58m 100% 67%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004 55m Honolulu HNL 07:31 → SEA 15:54AS 1878 6h 54m 86% 56%
AlaskaDetails → LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034 3h 08m Honolulu HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822 9h 30m 98% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054 57m Honolulu HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822 7h 20m 49% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON