Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 966 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:48	SMF 19:01	26%	6%	1.0%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Lihue). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 09:27 → OGG 10:16AS 1040	2h 07m Kahului	OGG 12:23 → SMF 20:36AS 960	8h 09m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:14 → HNL 11:53AS 1054	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → SMF 23:02AS 820	8h 48m	98%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 12:55 → HNL 13:34AS 1074	1h 15m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → SMF 23:02AS 820	7h 07m	75%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON