tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2594 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2594 Southwest LIT 08:16 BNA 09:40 5% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3705 Southwest LIT 16:41 BNA 18:05 17% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 4h 44m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 4h 43m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 45m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 12:06 → BNA 12:38AA 2409 5h 29m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54AA 4049 · flown by Envoy 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:55 → BNA 11:58AA 1396 6h 24m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 08m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 6h 57m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Chicago ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362 6h 45m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON