Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4158 LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 4969 LIT 10:08 → CLT 13:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4158 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:09	CLT 10:18	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
MQ 3860 Envoy	LIT 08:27	CLT 11:37	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3506 Envoy	LIT 15:03	CLT 18:03	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 4969 SkyWest	LIT 10:08	CLT 13:11	16%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON