Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3630 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3630 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 06:00	DCA 09:29	6%	3%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 02m	98%	88%
American Details →	LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 08m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	5h 00m	97%	84%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 08m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	7h 58m	97%	81%
American Details →	LIT 06:31 → ORD 08:42AA 3656 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 10:36 → DCA 13:45AA 1200	6h 14m	96%	80%
American Details →	LIT 07:15 → DFW 08:35AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 44m	98%	80%
United Details →	LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625	8h 03m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	7h 03m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON