Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2337 at 11:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2337 LIT 11:11 → DEN 12:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5429 LIT 16:39 → DEN 18:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2337 Southwest	LIT 11:11	DEN 12:25	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1910 United	LIT 08:58	DEN 10:20	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4686 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 13:35	DEN 15:04	12%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 5429 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 16:39	DEN 18:25	22%	6%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON