Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4049 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4049 LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OH 5615 LIT 16:05 → DFW 17:27 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 05:34	DFW 06:54	6%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 3641 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 09:00	DFW 10:20	14%	3%	0.8%	79%
OH 5599 PSA	LIT 11:44	DFW 13:06	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 13:41	DFW 15:04	15%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 3589 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 07:15	DFW 08:35	15%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 3674 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 19:56	DFW 21:33	16%	4%	0.8%	67%
MQ 3505 Envoy	LIT 18:47	DFW 20:07	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3520 Envoy	LIT 17:31	DFW 18:51	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	LIT 16:05	DFW 17:27	23%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON