Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 5450 at 17:24, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5450 LIT 17:24 → IAH 19:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5450 SkyWest	LIT 17:24	IAH 19:01	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 4301 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 07:05	IAH 08:47	6%	3%	0.0%	94%
UA 4066 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 09:28	IAH 11:15	8%	6%	0.0%	92%
UA 4830 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 12:00	IAH 13:37	16%	8%	2.3%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON