Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3110 at 14:26, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3110 Southwest	LIT 14:26	LAS 15:41	12%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 35m	99%	86%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 08m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 08m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 15m	97%	84%
American Details →	LIT 08:18 → PHX 09:34AA 4323 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 11:14 → LAS 12:47AA 457	6h 29m	98%	83%
United Details →	LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 09m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:40DL 919	9h 50m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:54 → LAS 17:10DL 659	9h 43m	100%	81%
American Details →	LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → LAS 10:03AA 1550	6h 29m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON