Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4656 at 07:01, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4656 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LIT 07:01	LGA 11:00	16%	5%	1.4%	86%
DL 4960 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LIT 07:11	LGA 11:05	30%	14%	4.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 17m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	7h 03m	99%	80%
American Details →	LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LGA 13:00AA 1056	6h 26m	98%	78%
American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 11:47 → LGA 13:46AA 2268	5h 37m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 23m	99%	73%
United Details →	LIT 13:35 → DEN 15:04UA 4686 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	8h 55m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	5h 28m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 37m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON