Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4323 at 08:18, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4323 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	LIT 08:18	PHX 09:34	9%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905	7h 32m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 38m	99%	85%
American Details →	LIT 07:09 → CLT 10:18AA 4158 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	7h 47m	98%	85%
American Details →	LIT 07:15 → DFW 08:35AA 3589 · flown by Envoy	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:29 → PHX 12:14AA 359	6h 59m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	97%	82%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	53m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	5h 29m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:36 → PHX 21:34DL 929	7h 35m	97%	81%
United Details →	LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa	3h 00m Houston	IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:13UA 1798	7h 45m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON