Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4052 at 17:57, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4052 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LIT 17:57	SLC 20:12	4%	4%	0.6%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Little Rock). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LIT 05:25 → ATL 07:59DL 1565	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LIT 06:47 → ATL 09:25DL 1396	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 03m	99%	88%
United Details →	LIT 07:05 → IAH 08:47UA 4301 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 15m Houston	IAH 10:02 → SLC 12:37UA 2242	6h 32m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	LIT 09:27 → ATL 12:05DL 3033	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 51m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LIT 11:50 → ATL 14:28DL 3040	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 12m	99%	85%
American Details →	LIT 05:34 → DFW 06:54AA 4049 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → SLC 11:04AA 1878	6h 30m	98%	82%
United Details →	LIT 09:28 → IAH 11:15UA 4066 · flown by Mesa	3h 10m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	8h 12m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	LIT 15:59 → ATL 18:42DL 3027	52m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	6h 38m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON