tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 435 at 13:56, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 435 Southwest MAF 13:56 AUS 15:15 12% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MAF 05:00 → IAH 06:37UA 6351 · flown by Mesa 1h 06m Houston IAH 07:43 → AUS 09:00UA 2376 4h 00m 94% 87%
UnitedDetails → MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 10m 93% 86%
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:37 → AUS 09:49AA 794 4h 49m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 5h 50m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MAF 07:03 → DFW 08:29AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → AUS 11:55AA 1070 4h 52m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:02 → DFW 09:25AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852 5h 44m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa 2h 43m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 5h 30m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → MAF 14:15 → IAH 15:57UA 4061 · flown by Mesa 2h 53m Houston IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674 5h 42m 97% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON