Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1789 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1789 MAF 06:56 → DEN 07:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5472 MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1789 Southwest	MAF 06:56	DEN 07:45	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 5794 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 06:05	DEN 07:00	7%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 4807 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 13:45	DEN 14:47	13%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 5472 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DEN 18:25	27%	8%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON