Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4075 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4075 MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3653 MAF 17:23 → DFW 18:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4075 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 05:00	DFW 06:20	6%	4%	1.2%	91%
MQ 3698 Envoy	MAF 05:59	DFW 07:22	8%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 07:03	DFW 08:29	9%	6%	1.1%	90%
AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 10:21	DFW 11:44	10%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 3352 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 08:02	DFW 09:25	12%	4%	1.3%	88%
MQ 3511 Envoy	MAF 11:51	DFW 13:14	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3512 Envoy	MAF 14:23	DFW 15:46	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 6199 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MAF 18:29	DFW 19:55	18%	7%	1.2%	60%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MAF 17:23	DFW 18:49	21%	6%	1.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON