Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4593 at 11:11, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4593 Southwest	MAF 11:11	LAS 11:36	8%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MAF 06:05 → DEN 07:00UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316	5h 02m	95%	87%
United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 00m	98%	82%
American Details →	MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → LAS 10:03AA 1550	7h 03m	100%	80%
United Details →	MAF 11:57 → IAH 13:37UA 4011 · flown by Mesa	3h 01m Houston	IAH 16:38 → LAS 18:08UA 2190	8h 11m	98%	80%
American Details →	MAF 09:20 → PHX 09:23AA 4939 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Phoenix	PHX 11:14 → LAS 12:47AA 457	5h 27m	91%	77%
United Details →	MAF 14:15 → IAH 15:57UA 4061 · flown by Mesa	2h 42m Houston	IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406	7h 42m	97%	76%
American Details →	MAF 07:03 → DFW 08:29AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → LAS 11:52AA 1482	6h 49m	97%	76%
United Details →	MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Denver	DEN 16:13 → LAS 17:28UA 2424	5h 43m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON