Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1204 MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2629 MCI 16:46 → ATL 20:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1204 Delta Flight history →	MCI 05:39	ATL 08:43	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1212 Delta Flight history →	MCI 07:00	ATL 10:03	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 3110 Delta Flight history →	MCI 08:00	ATL 11:01	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	MCI 10:43	ATL 13:47	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	MCI 12:16	ATL 15:23	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	MCI 13:23	ATL 16:30	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	MCI 15:38	ATL 18:48	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1470 Delta Flight history →	MCI 18:42	ATL 21:57	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	MCI 17:40	ATL 20:54	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 2629 Southwest	MCI 16:46	ATL 20:04	9%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON