Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1057 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1057 MCI 05:01 → BWI 08:38 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1692 MCI 17:51 → BWI 21:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1057 Southwest	MCI 05:01	BWI 08:38	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4670 Southwest	MCI 10:46	BWI 14:24	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1692 Southwest	MCI 17:51	BWI 21:29	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON