Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1297 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 1297 MCI 06:31 → CLT 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1619 MCI 14:48 → CLT 18:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1297 American Flight history →	MCI 06:31	CLT 10:00	5%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 1003 American Flight history →	MCI 07:39	CLT 10:59	6%	3%	0.6%	66%
AA 1616 American Flight history →	MCI 10:54	CLT 14:13	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	MCI 14:48	CLT 18:09	15%	5%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON