Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1078 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1078 MCI 07:41 → DCA 11:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5472 MCI 16:20 → DCA 19:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1078 Southwest	MCI 07:41	DCA 11:19	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5644 PSA	MCI 06:13	DCA 09:49	10%	5%	1.9%	no record
WN 2619 Southwest	MCI 11:36	DCA 15:15	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2853 American	MCI 10:07	DCA 13:52	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3546 Southwest	MCI 18:26	DCA 22:05	20%	10%	0.6%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	MCI 16:20	DCA 19:57	25%	11%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON