Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2621 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 2621 MCI 06:56 → DEN 07:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1737 MCI 17:24 → DEN 18:18 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2621 Southwest	MCI 06:56	DEN 07:46	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	MCI 06:00	DEN 06:56	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 1566 Southwest	MCI 08:21	DEN 09:11	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4761 SkyWest	MCI 11:38	DEN 12:33	8%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2622 Southwest	MCI 11:26	DEN 12:15	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 708 United Flight history →	MCI 13:32	DEN 14:27	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 866 Southwest	MCI 12:21	DEN 13:10	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1384 United Flight history →	MCI 08:52	DEN 09:47	10%	3%	0.6%	66%
WN 2623 Southwest	MCI 13:51	DEN 14:40	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5684 SkyWest	MCI 19:11	DEN 20:05	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2624 Southwest	MCI 15:43	DEN 16:32	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2625 Southwest	MCI 19:06	DEN 19:55	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1737 United	MCI 17:24	DEN 18:18	20%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON