Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1098 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1098 MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3030 MCI 17:19 → DFW 19:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1098 American Flight history →	MCI 05:31	DFW 07:23	6%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1261 American Flight history →	MCI 06:52	DFW 08:53	7%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 1582 American	MCI 07:58	DFW 09:46	10%	5%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3471 Envoy	MCI 14:22	DFW 16:15	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2430 American	MCI 09:42	DFW 11:30	12%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MCI 19:18	DFW 21:11	12%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 3331 American Flight history →	MCI 11:28	DFW 13:17	14%	6%	0.8%	64%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	MCI 12:57	DFW 14:52	14%	7%	0.8%	74%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	MCI 17:19	DFW 19:14	22%	10%	1.1%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON