Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1813 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1813 United	MCI 06:27	EWR 10:22	7%	5%	1.1%	no record
YX 3514 Republic	MCI 15:19	EWR 19:19	33%	11%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895	5h 33m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 42m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	52m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	4h 31m	95%	83%
United Details →	MCI 07:53 → ORD 09:45UA 1491	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606	6h 46m	99%	78%
United Details →	MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740	1h 26m Houston	IAH 09:51 → EWR 14:30UA 2402	7h 14m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	59m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883	5h 15m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	7h 40m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	5h 16m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON