Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3518 at 15:21, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3518 Southwest	MCI 15:21	FLL 19:25	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635	56m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673	6h 02m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	5h 44m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	5h 20m	98%	83%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	2h 50m Denver	DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214	8h 46m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:41DL 2897	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745	9h 23m	99%	83%
United Details →	MCI 06:16 → IAH 08:25UA 740	2h 01m Houston	IAH 10:26 → FLL 14:20UA 2670	7h 04m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 06:25 → DTW 09:23DL 1256	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294	8h 09m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	5h 27m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON