Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1572 United	MCI 11:44	IAD 15:21	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
YX 3546 Republic	MCI 17:54	IAD 21:50	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCI 05:39 → ATL 08:43DL 1204	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965	6h 27m	100%	91%
United Details →	MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355	1h 04m Denver	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	6h 26m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	MCI 07:00 → ATL 10:03DL 1212	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 01m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	7h 51m	100%	88%
United Details →	MCI 08:52 → DEN 09:47UA 1384	2h 39m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	8h 06m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 08:00 → ATL 11:01DL 3110	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	7h 46m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MCI 10:43 → ATL 13:47DL 2471	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	6h 47m	99%	83%
American Details →	MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524	8h 09m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON